Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Market Bottom ?: Extreme historical VIX (49.57) and S&P 500 (916) behavior





Its important to observe that the VIX appears to have hit a “double top” pattern at 80. A double top trading pattern could be a early signal of a major trend reversal. And secondly, this double top in the VIX is accompanied by a nearly historic negative sentiment in the equities markets which ordinarily should lift the price of VIX options. If the price of VIX options cannot go higher on this type of sentiment, it’s getting easier to make a case that the VIX could drop from here, which could be accompanied by higher equity prices.