Sunday, December 14, 2008

Buy: USO 40.17 (Crude Oil ETF) is severely oversold and ready to advance



Rationale: Crude oil is severely oversold and poised for a interim advance.Expect crude to return to the high 90-100 levels till the 1st qtr. '09. Consequently, USO, oil etf (USO 40.19) ) which tracks the crude oil contract is also oversold. Falling to deep oversold levels, bullish divergences will advance it to higher levels up to 45 then 50 hitting minor resistance in the early October '08 levels. Momentum in the MACD indicator has turned bullish and often precedes price moves. Today's price action gapped higher , so expect a retreat to fill the gap , use as a buy point, then expect higher prices.
Other commodities, grains and metals are also severely oversold, amidst a falling dollar, and have begun to rally.

Target: 45.00 (above Nov 26th high) then 50; Stop: 35.50 (below Dec 12 th lows)