Short: First Marblehead (FMD 56.43) weekly chart appears over-extended

Rational: First MarbleHead (FMD 56.43) is displaying all the technical signs of being rather extended and vulnerable to a corrective move from these levels. Momentum has also started to signal a non-confirmation of the last high of $57.24. In contrast, many analysts remain bullish fundamentally as guidance remains up. During the past 30 days, five out of six analysts have raised their fiscal 2007 projections, causing the consensus estimate to rise by 14 cents to $3.67 per share.

However, as an axiom, whenever technicals and fundamentals begin to contrast, watch what the stock does compared to what people continue to say.

Target: 52.88

Stop: 57.50 above previous highs