Wednesday, December 6, 2006

Short Scalp: General Growth (GGP) upward spike extended with overbought RSI conditions

GGP is overbought and due to correct. The daily RSI is above the upper 70 parameter and suggests a pullback to the previous breakout level (approx.$53.20). A short scalp was initiated on GGP @ 54.84. Stop Loss @ 55.43. (Note: Due to web technical problems, charts cannot be posted.)

Short Scalp: Federal Realty Inv (FRT) spike extended with daily sell divergences


REITS have reached overbought conditions. MACD , RSI indicators are suggesting downside divergences. A short scalp was initiated on FRT @ 86.22. Stop Loss @ 86.65.

Daily 30 Year T Bond (USZ06) getting toppy


The daily 30 year T-Bond ( USZ06) is starting to suggest downside divergences. The MACD momentum is diverging lower while price action has continued higher. The recent bond rally has been a leading signal of three economic issues: 1) a lower inflationary outlook, 2) potential neutral to downside Fed rate action, while 3) mixed 4th quarter economic numbers are suggesting an economic softening.

Friday, December 1, 2006

Improving fundamentals and sell-side upgrades break Cardinal Health (CAH) higher from base building support

CAH has risen from its base fueled by a UBS upgrade and additional fundamental improvements in the company outlook. Longer term, the technical picture seems to offer a
reasonable risk/reward at these levels. Prior
to the break, RSI numbers were resting in the 40 range while MACD momentum held firm as prices eroded lower. Now daily momentum has risen to new highs creating a new target price of : $70.89 (Sept '06 high). Stop loss 63.10.

Value play: Buy Triad (TRI): 13d reports active investor group values stock 25 to 50% higher from current levels

Triad Hospitals (TRI) stock is being actively accumulated by a private investor group for the following reasons as stated by StreetInsider 13D Tracker : "The hedge fund said the company should amend the composition of the board, focus on improving and optimizing existing assets, excess cash flow should be returned to shareholders through dividends and they should increase leverage significantly." Since the November '06 base, Triad has had quite a run up filling its previous gap and currently appears to be pulling back to the $40 range support level.

Update: January Crude Oil '07 continues higher to test next "technical" level

January '07 Crude Oil is heading higher to test the $63.61 "technical" resistance level. All technicians are glued to this level. In the previous recommendation dated Nov. 27th, Crude Oil was poised to move higher supported by bullish divergences and stalling lower ADX levels. Secondly, continued OPEC cuts and the coming winter season continue to add additional speculation of higher prices.

Morning market internals get crushed by lower than expected ISM numbers


Market internals are getting crushed this morning with lower than expected ISM (49.5 vs. 51.2) economic numbers.
A/D and Up/down ratios are well over 2:1 on the downside with TRIN at 1.41 levels.
Seasonal investor year-end perspectives:
1) With year-end reporting approaching, institutions are seizing to lock in gains YTD to maintain performance returns.
2) Tax loss selling - institutional/individual tax loss selling is also seasonally stronger in 4th quarters

Thursday, November 30, 2006

Weekly Natural Gas Index (XNG) continues higher

After consolidating since Sept '05, the Natural Gas Index (XNG) broke higher in mid-November '06 and appears headed to higher ground.
Top weighted names that make up this index include: SWN, XTO, PPP, DVN, APC, APA, EOG.

Mixed economic picture keeps market internals flat

This morning's market internals have remained flat reflecting the obsession over a mixed economic outlook. A hung jury remains whether inflation is still a threat. Will the Fed drop rates, have we reached a critical inflection point in the earnings cycle, are lower interest rates in the cards...remains the question du jour. Continued whisper talk argues a halt to the homebuilder decline due to lower interest rates.

A/D ratio : .93
Up/Down Vol ratio : .97
Trin: .95 (and rising)

Buy: NYSE Group (NYX) Daily chart holding support


A Buy was initiated @ 97.43 on the open for NYSE Group (NYX). The 15 min bullish divergence is exhibiting a bias upward for a price target $105.50. Stop $96.51. Also note the clean pullback demonstrated on the daily chart with new momentum highs, support at the 20 day EMA and strong ADX. Exchange stocks have been the talk of late with the newer NYMEX (NMX) IPO.